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July 30, 2004

Zogby poll shows Rove strategy in tatters

I've been reading a lot about Karl Rove--you know, "Bush's Brain"--and pace Mencken I think he's going to make Bush lose by overestimating the stupidity of the American people. It is Rove we have to thank for the "divider not uniter" reality W has unleashed--Rove believed that Bush I lost because he didn't protect the Republican base (read: "wingnuts"). Thus, everything Bush II has done has been about pumping them up, secure that the rest of the nation was too disorganized to do anything about it. Not only was he wrong about that, he seems to have completely discounted the possibility that people who hadn't voted for a while (or ever) might be motivated to fight back. The Zogby numbers reveal that among non-voters in 2000, Kerry is leading Bush 2-1 and that he's picking up Nader 2000 voters 3-1 over W.

While the evidence that non-voters are more likely to vote this year is mainly anecdotal so far, the latest polling must be giving Rove and his stuffing-headed boss a lot of heartburn. By way of Eschaton:

The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President George W. Bush beyond just the horserace. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator John Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base. The Bush team's attempted outreach to base Democratic and swing constituency has shown to be a failure thus far, limiting his potential growth in the electorate.

Um, is this attempted outreach? If so, anyone surprised it's failing? Seriously, read the Zogby numbers below... it will make you smile. They certainly confirm my suspicion that single women are the smartest people in the country!

Among Hispanic Voters:
Kerry 69%
Bush 19%

Among Southern Voters:
Kerry 48%
Bush 46%

Viewed Favorably in the South:
Kerry 55%
Bush 55%

Bush's Job Performance in the South: 44%

US Headed in the Right Direction in the South: 43%

Among Young Voters (18-29) :
Kerry 53%
Bush 33%

Among Single Voters:
Kerry 69%
Bush 19%

In the Red States:
Kerry 46%
Bush 48%

In the Blue States:
Kerry 50%
Bush 38%

Among People Who Did Not Vote in 2000:
Kerry 50%
Bush 25%

Posted by jay at July 30, 2004 04:17 PM | TrackBack
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Something I saw a day or two ago that validates what one suspects: fear leads to choosing the most aggressive-sounding candidate. Whenever I see a poll now, I want to know the actual questions and their order of presentation. The percentage of Americans actually dying from terrorism is still incredibly small compared to many other issues we could address before getting around to the religious extremists (who might be marginalized into extinction in their own societies if our foreign policy was different). So, if everyone could just feel grounded and centered... and then choose a president, we should be okay.

I really, really want not just Bush defeated in November, but for it to be resoundingly so, such that the neo-con agenda can only continue to fester in the most obscure pockets of insistence. I don't want us to be forced to keep fighting the same bullshit with only a slightly improved edge on November 3. I want Rove, Feith, Abrams, et al to fall into obscurity. I hope they can only afford to own one home.

I wish there was some way to actually get the true pulse of the nation; it seems to me that most of what I can read right now is either left-leaning or right-leaning, and both are some varying degree of confident that their candidate has the presidency in hand. I suppose the truth today is that the identified constituency know for whom they will vote, and those who remain uncertain will remain so until much later.

Posted by: Gary on July 30, 2004 11:45 PM
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